From 2010 till 2014 is the important period for both developed and developing countries.

Housing and Inflation remains a major concern throughout the world.
Housing has more than double in China, India, Brazil, Argentina in the past 4 years but Income up only 30 to 40% during that period. Commodity prices have gone up 20% in the past year alone in most of the developing countries.
Commodity prices in the coming [...]

December 2009 worst month yet for survey of nation’s counties.

Some areas previously largely by-passed by recession now slowing down:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AP-analysis-US-economic-apf-3597455065.html?x=0&sec=topStories&@#$%&!=5&asset=&ccode=
We seem to be going down. I hope it won’t be to an S&P in the 600’s again. That was not much fun at all. Still there are reasons for caution and fear. Unemployment is high. Companies are not hiring. Commercial real estate looks shaky. There [...]

Stocks are going to affected more and more in the coming months, the bottom I’m afraid about to fall out.

The United States has been accumulating debt for a very long time. Up until this point we have gotten by on brazen promises and outlandish loans. Those days have run their course.
China, the primary lender/rescuer of the United States -who, when we as a nation look into our purses and a one-winged dead moth coughs [...]

Scariest Chart EVER: Loss Severity, Subprime First-Lien…

When housing turns then we can expect to see real improvement in economic conditions…, that said housing will not bottom until 2012 or later and then languish for a decade or more…
Real problems ahead; anyone thinking otherwise needs to wake up…
http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/
- Nollaig

This is my last quote for the day:

“People who will not turn a shovel full of dirt on the project (Muscle Shoals Dam) nor contribute a pound of material, will collect more money from the United States than will the People who supply all the material and do all the work. This is the terrible thing about interest …But here is the [...]

There is no “fix” to this. We have to rebuild from the ground up and millions are going to lose everything and suffer for a long time.

We will go from the current number of retirees of about 37 million to about 71 million in 20 years, alone. That statistic alone is going to cause medical budget items in the government to soar.
Congress had a solution to paying for this. They proposed adding 60 to 100 million immigrants to the work force [...]

Physical gold and silver, for short term expenses should the dollar collapse (months to a couple years) food that is easily stored.

Try to sell and leave Arizona and go to live near relatives on land that will support a large garden and possibly fruit trees with a well and septic tank for when power is out and battery, solar, or generator backup can supply power long enough for water and to run the refrig enough [...]

I am just not seeing any positive long-term signs.

The US economy is in a very deep hole and every time government tries to fix the problem things get worse. Even IF we assume “growth” has resumed, know that the projected 3-3.5 million foreclosures expected this year will far exceed those of 2009 causing more problems with our financial sector. More than one out [...]

Must-Know News - Feb. 08

1) Corporate Bond Spreads Rise Most Since November: Credit Markets

“Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) — Corporate borrowing costs are rising at the fastest pace in more than two months on concern that worsening government finances will slow the global economy and make it harder for companies to meet debt payments.
The extra yield investors demand to own corporate bonds [...]

Why do I think the “seasonal adjustments” for unemployment are no longer valid?

Because they are set for good economic times where there are swings of unemployment levels quickly taken up in hiring in following months. So the “factors” were developed to “smooth” out those peaks and valleys. This is not necessarily a bad thing. Look at the trends for several better economic years - numbers are in [...]

Job seekers: Looking for a job is a waste of time.

Many jobless people have reached a conclusion that captures the depth of the unemployment crisis: Looking for a job is a waste of time.
The economy is growing. Yet it’s creating few jobs. That’s why in the past eight months, 1.8 million people without jobs left the labor market. Many had grown so frustrated by their [...]

When your own government accountants are the biggest doom and gloomers, you better pay attention.

They have warned for years there is no way out of this and we are only delaying the loss of our standard of living and domestic tranquility. Even the CBO is projecting doom with optimistic models they way are not realistic.
quote
But the CBO admits that even these frightening projections may be grossly understated because:
* “The [...]

As a distant observer, it is astonishing U.S. tax payers have been fooled into thinking the failure of AIG would have been catastophic by undermining confidence in the financial system.

In essence, this veil of deception allowed a Coup d’etat of the U.S. Government and Treasury by the banking system elite.
It is undeniable that politicians in Washington D.C. have been bought and sold for years by financial lobbyists in favor of Wall Street’s interests at the expense of U.S. tax payers for many generations to [...]

How about no recovery for a decade?

We have debt to GDP (total debt) of almost 400% and that will take a decade to work out of. How about the ex-comptroller general, David Walker stating this week that even double digit GDP growth for decades won’t get us out of this crisis that has been building for decades.
How about the charts on [...]

London real estate bubble has been re- inflated to dizzy unaffordable heights of pre Lehman days and is ready to pop:

It is the “paper equity” of the real estate appreciation that makes people feel “wealthy”, while savings rate down to zero/negative. same thing happened in California.
—
LONDON—The one-bedroom co-op apartment is only a short walk from Hyde Park, and it boasts high ceilings and a purely decorative balcony.
Yours for a mere $1.5 million. It seems quite [...]

Must-Know News - Feb. 07

1) Greece’s financial crisis puts the future of the euro in question

“Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at the Stern School of Business at New York university, said in Davos last month: “If Greece goes under, that’s a problem for the eurozone. If Spain goes under, it’s a disaster.””
“Gerard Lyons, chief economist at Standard Chartered, says there [...]

Laugh of the day: Geithner Says U.S. Will ‘Never’ Lose Its Aaa Debt Rating

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said the U.S. is in no danger of losing its Aaa debt rating even though the Obama administration has predicted a $1.6 trillion budget deficit in 2010.
“Absolutely not,” Geithner said, when asked in an ABC News interview broadcast today whether a downgrade is a concern. “That will never happen to [...]

BBC UK: US jobless numbers hide scale of problem!

BBC UK report s on the ’hidden’ jobless’ in America, suggesting that real unemployment is not the official figures, which are bad enough, but it’s much worse and soup kitchens are back :
Like all developed economies, the US has arrived at its method of counting the unemployed over many years and via some controversial choices.
As [...]

WESTWOOD ONE ANNOUNCES ALL-STAR BROADCAST TEAM FOR SUPER BOWL XLIV

– Marv Albert, Boomer Esiason, Mark Malone,
James Lofton, Jim Gray and Scott Graham –
— Country Superstar Kenny Chesney Kicks Off Coverage
with a Special Version of His Song “This Is Our Moment” —
New York, NY – January 27, 2010 – Westwood One (NASDAQ: WWON), the exclusive network radio home of the National Football League (NFL), is [...]

A prolonged double dip recession or a permanent state of structural insolvency?

After decades of failed Keynesian policies and looting of the Treasury for political gain and ignoring numerous signals that the crisis was due to arrive, it’s coming down to what type of structural crisis we want to deal with: a prolonged double dip recession or a permanent state of structural insolvency.
Under the double dip scenario [...]

Wall Street is just a den of thieves out to scam people – it is nothing but bubbles and Ponzi schemes.

Most of the profits they make are either through trading on their own account or thru investments for individuals/institutions. Trading is zero sum game there is a loser for every winner- investor at home is the sucker. As regards institutional investments- it is the 2/20 game– whether you make money or not they will.
Wall Street [...]

The Storm is developing to be a huge depression.

The Democrat Economic Storm
www.halfwaytoconcord.com/democrats-create-perfect-economic-storm/
President Obama has announced the recession is over; (See http://seeker401.wordpress.com/2009/07/31/the-recession-is-over-obama/ ) but he and his fellow Democrats fail to recognize the economic storm that is forming to create an even bigger financial crisis. They also failed to recognize how their policies to force banks to relax rules to unqualified lenders created the [...]

Market Update: The Power of the TICK

As many of you may recall, I have been waiting for the capitulation tick extreme reading of -1400 or worse to come along as I believed that selling extreme would find the short-term trading bottom that I have been looking for.
We got that signal on friday. At approximately 1:40 p.m.NY time on friday the tape [...]

Signs of the economy from our local newspaper today:

“Delinquent Buncombe taxpayers to be listed
FEBRUARY 6, 2010
ASHEVILLE — Delinquent taxpayers can expect to see their names in print come March 21 if they don’t pay up.
…..Buncombe County Tax Collector Gary Roberts asked county commissioners to approve the annual advertisement in the Asheville Citizen-Times at their meeting Tuesday, as an incentive for more to pay [...]

Leaking information: World’s Top Bankers Meeting In Secret In Australia

Representatives for 24 central banks and money authorities, including the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, have landed in Sydney, Australia. They plan to hold a meeting at a secret location tomorrow. Many important bankers will attend.
Many Asian delegates, including governors of the Peoples Bank of China, the Bank of Japan, and the Reserve [...]

I throw this out to you as food for thought. Is it significant or is it not? That’s for you to decide.

Kaaresve says: “You have to go back to Sept. 2007 to find a time when the “smart money” commercial hedgers have been this bullish. As you’ll see on that latest signals table, these guys are in heavy-duty extreme territory in their bullish net positioning.”
K didn’t answer my question so I looked it up myself. That [...]

The Big Banks will not let the “market” drop.

I was bearish until it occurred to me that elevated stock prices are just part of the bailout/recovery plan. This is the only way to explain the sudden reversal in the stock market in March, the disproportionate rise of stock prices relative to the economy and earnings, and the lack of any significant correction [...]

I have been very critical of Paulson, Bernanke and Geithner.

But I am willing to hear an opposing argument if credible. I have read multiple books on the crisis and am 80% through “Too Big to Fail” by Andrew Ross Sorkin, which is a detailed account of the events leading up to and during the meltdown. He leaves the reader with the impression that Paulson, [...]

Re. Friday’s last minute rally

It was neither “bargain hunting” nor “short covering”.
It was once again the “invisible hand” or “stick save” of FedTreasury money funneled in via the prop. trading desks to prevent a market sell-off.
Ain’t it just amazing that on Friday:
1) Asia was down 1-4% across the board.
2) Europe was down 1-3% across the board
3) US dollar was [...]

Must-Know News - Feb. 06

1)  U.S. Treasury CDS off highs as worries persist

“The cost of insuring U.S. Treasuries against default ended little changed on Friday, down from a 10-month high, as worries over a possible U.S. government default lingered.”
“This week’s rise in Treasury CDS prices implied traders have priced in about a 5 percent chance of a U.S. government [...]