Worse Times in the Economy

Nov.09, 2007 in Market Outlook

Testifying before the Joint Economic Committee, the Fed chairman said that the two rate cuts in September and October should be enough to keep the economy from slipping into a recession. Without being specific, he reinforced statements by other Fed policy makers that the economy would have to show signs of stalling out entirely before they would reduce rates again.

Asked if he saw any risks of a recession, Mr. Bernanke demurred. “We have not calculated the probability of a recession,” he responded. “Our assessment is for slower growth, but positive.”

The Fed chairman’s stance was similar to that of Henry M. Paulson Jr., the Treasury secretary. In a meeting Thursday with editors and reporters of The New York Times, Mr. Paulson predicted that the crisis in mortgage and credit markets would hurt growth but not lead to a recession.

“I believe we will continue to grow,” Mr. Paulson said. “We have a diversified economy.”

Mr. Bernanke offered a rocky outlook for the months ahead. He said the battered housing market had yet to hit bottom, that delinquencies and foreclosures were likely to rise and that the depression in home-building was “likely to intensify.” He predicted that personal spending would advance more slowly, because consumers were less confident and because of tighter credit conditions.

On top of all that, he said, “further sharp increases in crude oil prices have put renewed upward pressure on inflation and may impose further restraint on economic activity.” Oil traded just above $95 a barrel on Thursday, down slightly from the day before but still near its recent record highs.

Despite all these worrying signs, Mr. Bernanke noted that the economic data since the Fed reduced interest rates last week “continued to suggest that the overall economy remained resilient in recent months.”

That did little to cheer lawmakers. In an early sign of the political pressure that the Fed is likely to face if the economy falters next year, Senator Brownback, who recently abandoned his Republican campaign for president, pleaded with Mr. Bernanke to cut rates in time for the Christmas shopping season.

“It seems to me that now is the time,” Mr. Brownback said. “When those gas prices get up to $3 a gallon, it seems to hit some sort of psychological point in consumer’s mind that ‘I have less to spend,’ and that’s a reality for them.”

By EDMUND L. ANDREWS

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/09/business/09fed.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

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