The similarities between 1929 and 2009:
By Daniel at 11 November, 2009, 10:52 am
In 1929, the DOW lost 48% going from 381 to 198. It then gained 48% going from 198 to 294.
Fast forward to the current day…the DOW lost 49% going from 13,930 to 7,062. Since the low in March, it has gained 45%. A gain of 49% would put it at 10,523.
Now the kicker.
After the DOW lost 48% in 1929-1930 going from 381 to 98 and then gained 48% jumping back up to 294, it proceded to lose 86% plunging to its ultimate low of 41.22 in 1932.
If the same holds true now, it would put the DOW at 1473. Scary stuff!
The final 1930 to 1932 run was 2 years long. Meaning it will also take time for this bubble to deflate. And deflate it will…
But this bubble is also going higher…way higher. We may even see irrational exuberance push the DOW to all time highs before people wake up to this shell game. Basically, this thing is going up until the Fed even hints at raising rates, which is 3 to who-knows-how-many months off. Or until Korea or Isreal initiate a war, strengthening the dollar.
The reason this is going up-up-up is once again, a greater fool game. Ride it til you feel your ready to exit before the big crash.
Too many variables for anything to make sense. Black swan events, war, failed Treasury auctions, Fed Speak, carry trade, inflation…this is not an investing market, this is a trading market.
Having said that, bulls don’t worry…you have another 275 points before the big crash 
- Vics
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