I called the top in gold at $985 spot in real time, missed the top by around $50. I posted another entry at $820 which is several days away from going into the money with a near term target of $630, and ultimately much lower.
Now that the Fed is gone, gold will fall more quickly. [...]
1. there are many crazy CNBC pundits who claim this mkt is very cheap by historical standards and should be bought…well, during the inflationary bear markets of the past, the Dow PE got down to 2…this past quarter, the FDIC said that the total earnings of all the banks it covers made a little over [...]
During bull markets, PEs range from 15-20. During bear markets, they range from 10-12. That means that the PE effect alone will cause the markets to fall between 33% and 40% from the October 2007 highs. Now, consider that earnings will decline, on average, around 50% in a normal recession. Throw that on top of [...]
Instead of trusting someone else to do it for you, collect fees from you while they play golf, go sailing, or seek celebrity as they opine incessantly about an unknowable future.
Madoff was a clear example of a house built upon a rotted foundation. Investment fund managers collected fees from the investors that they were able [...]
If the back-to-back record Bear markets bracketing the no-growth economy during his eight years doesn’t make the case, I don’t know what will. Oh yeah, that dual war thing and the soon-to-be 50 million uninsured Americans. Then all the constitutional rights and environmental protections we lost. Compared to Bush, Nixon looks like a saint who [...]
You need to look at the sectors of the market that were strongest historically in rallies off bear market bottoms. The current rally has had oil&gas and metals as the strongest and that is pointing to this rally failing. Also in prior bear market bottoms a few economic indicators were starting to show that things [...]
Suddenly, our consumer society is doing a lot less consuming and slaming the door on the ” Buying Binge ” we’ve been on in the last few years! The numbers are pretty incredible. Sales of new vehicles have dropped 32 percent in the third quarter. Consumer spending appears likely to fall next year for the [...]
They don’t happen out of the blue or just because. There are a serious of events over time that lead to such an event.
If you look at history, the market had typically ran up substantially before a major decline. This was especially true in 1929, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2008.
For example, the market was up [...]
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