Let me try to give a technical outlook/prediction for today.

Nov.17, 2008 in Market Outlook

US markets will very likely open lower with a full gap down. Due to enourmous selling pressure experienced friday, which will probably continue today, I think that we will drop lower even in the first minutes of trading.

Now there are three scenarios:

A. Markets start to recover a little after the initial drop, until hoovering at about -1%. As the technical situation remains very bad there, it is very probable that stocks will resume their fall shortly afterwards. Before this happens, it seems most appropriate not to enter any positions at all.

B. Markets continue to fall steeply. Crash starting instantaneously. In this case, carefully selling any temporary bounces might make sense.

C. Markets will rally based on news from Citi and B. Obama. In case this scenario starts to take shape, one might think about setting long entry points about .5% above fridays close (and exit points, due to extreme volatility, about 2% underneath).

Other than in scenario C, I would really refrain from going long.

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