Just a little example what unemployment number worths.
By Daniel at 6 November, 2009, 2:04 am
Since May 2009 there are 1,7M less employed (0.9% of the “labor force”).
But unemployed are up just 600k (0.4%)
Guess what happend to the other 1.1 million.
They got out from the labor force, with 900k other.
So while unemployed rose 600k, not in labor force grew ANOTHER 2 million in 4 month!!! The historical average is 80k / month to get out of the labor force (because of growing population) vs 500k recently.
So people, please, just focus on the employed/population ratio, when it starts increasing, then we might think of a recovery. Last month it has dropped 0.4% alone, or 800k.
source: http://www.bls.gov/web/cpseea1.pdf
Year Month Popul. Work force Empl Working % Unempl % Out of LF
2009. may 235452 155081 140570 59,70% 14511 9,36% 80371
2009. june 235655 154926 140196 59,49% 14730 9,51% 80729
2009. july 235870 154504 140041 59,37% 14463 9,36% 81366
2009. aug 236087 154577 139649 59,15% 14928 9,66% 81510
2009. sep 236322 154006 138864 58,76% 15142 9,83% 82316
— and my prediction —
2009. oct 236550 154300 138500 58,55% 15800 10,24% 82250
According to government statistics, once every business cannot lay-off anymore because they have either gone out of business or they are on a skeleton crew and cannot layoff any more people, and once every person on unemployment has run out of benefits, THINGS WILL BE GREAT!
The generally reported unemployment rate will be 0% and the monthly job losses will be zero.
A government system of accounting for the health of the economy that would allow such a scenario to actually look good is highly flawed and manipulated.
- Roka
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