Important News - Oct. 29
By Daniel at 29 October, 2009, 10:16 pm
1) “Why the stock market’s ready to tumble” By David Stevenson
Interest rates are going up. And shares look to be heading down.
2) Taking Apart the $819 billion Stimulus Package
3) CIT Bonds Show Bankruptcy Inevitable as Swap Expires
Oct. 29 (Bloomberg) — CIT Group Inc. bond and credit- default swap prices show that investors are betting the 101- year-old commercial lender will file for bankruptcy after a debt exchange expires today.
Since CIT Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Peek started a $30 billion debt swap Oct. 1, the company’s notes due Nov. 3 have dropped 13 cents to 67 cents on the dollar, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Holders of the $500 million in notes are being offered 90 cents on the dollar in new debt and equity in an out-of-court exchange. They would get 70 cents on the dollar in bonds and new stock in a pre-packaged bankruptcy.
“The government’s first accounting of jobs tied to the $787 billion stimulus program claimed more than 30,000 positions paid for with recovery money. But that figure is overstated by least 5,000 jobs, according to an Associated Press review of a sample of stimulus contracts.”
“China and Brazil have started to trade in yuan, Kazakhstan Today agency reports citing the Russian information resource NEWSru.
According to NEWSru, China and Brazil established international payments in national currency of the Peoples Republic of China. Geli Corporation has already received from San Paolo a few million yuans. According to Vice President of the Brazilian branch of Bank of China, all formalities required by the local bodies of control have been met.”
“The governor said he had ordered seven-day unpaid furloughs for 3,258 workers not covered by union contracts. That move will save about $16 million, which Culver said he would use to reduce cuts to agencies dealing with children and vulnerable adults.”
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GDP report…Pick your numbers
A) “The world’s largest economy expanded at a 3.5 percent pace from July through September”
B) “In the past year, the economy has contracted 2.3%. The economy shrank 0.7% annualized in the second quarter and 6.4% in the first quarter.”
(Here’s a blogger on those numbers and here’s Nathan’s Economic Edge on the GDP numbers)
“A report from the Labor Department showed 530,000 workers filed claims for jobless benefits last week, more than anticipated and signaling the job market is slow to heal even as growth picks up.”
“The value of hotel construction starts fell 57% year to date through September versus the same three months last year. Hotel construction spending fell 38% in the fourteen months to September 2009. With September starts more than 75% below the average month during the fall 2005 – summer 2008 hotel building boom, spending will decline a further 7% into next summer. This will make the 2008-10 decline about 25% deeper than the last recession. Hotel occupancy has dropped below 60% and is headed to near 55% a year ahead.”
“Delinquencies in commercial mortgages also ballooned for the quarter. The rate hiked to 4.7% in Q309 from 4.1% in the previous quarter and more than doubled the 2.1% rate a year ago, according to the report.
“The delinquency rate has been increasing at an accelerated rate since Lehman Brothers’ collapse in September 2008 and the ensuing severe credit crunch and economic downturn,” according to the report.”
“Just when parents thought things in Hawaii’s public schools couldn’t get much worse, Department of Education officials warned yesterday that “thousands” of DOE employees will be laid off if a federal judge blocks teacher furloughs.”
“The governor is expected to ask the Legislature for expanded power to make budget reductions. He also warned of up to 2,000 layoffs, unless state employee unions agree to furloughs or other cost-cutting measures.”
“Still, Chen confirmed that China is investigating whether U.S. carmakers including General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. benefited unfairly from government assistance.
China “has the right to investigate” U.S. auto imports, Chen said. China “will conduct the investigations in a just and transparent review,” he said.”
“Drivers heading east on Interstate 40 need to drive several miles farther than Haviland for a rest.
If the Arizona Department of Transportation sees additional cuts, drivers may not have anywhere to rest until they get out of the state.”
“Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) — New York Lieutenant Governor Richard Ravitch predicted states across the U.S. would face deficits totaling as much as $500 billion in 2011 after the federal government stops paying them economic stimulus grants.
Ravitch, 76, a real estate developer and former chairman of New York’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, said the looming nationwide fiscal crisis would first become apparent as states’ credit ratings falter, making it more expensive to borrow money.”
“”They took this action knowing that they would have to assume billions of dollars in unfunded pension liabilities and drastically reduce the pensions of Delphi retirees,” Gump is expected to testify. “These illegal actions cost the Delphi retirees, both hourly and salaried, billions of dollars in lost pension annuities.”
The PBGC liens, valued at nearly $3.4 billion, were meant to protect Delphi pension plans but instead led to Delphi being unable to sell its U.S.-based manufacturing assets to GM. Delphi was also unable to sell its remaining offshore business.”
“The pension issue is, to put it bluntly, holding our community back. The sheer magnitude of its $238 million unfunded liability overshadows all other critical issues facing the City of Springfield, making it difficult, if not impossible, to plan for other community needs.”
- 18) Local budget measure falls short of true reform (San Francisco)
“ In July, the civil grand jury determined that San Francisco’s pension costs will increase by nearly 300 percent — from $178 million a year to $520 million — during the next three years. The increase is compounded, according to the report, by the fact that 40 percent of city employees are now eligible for retirement and another 15 percent will become eligible in the next five years.”
(The PDF file he refers to is no longer available, but it still survives this way)
“The falling pension assets add to the challenges of states facing combined budget gaps of $350 billion for the current and coming fiscal years, according to the Washington, D.C.-based Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.”
“The company will boost its loss projections for prime- jumbo, Alt-A, option adjustable-rate and subprime mortgages backing bonds issued between 2005 and 2008 after seeing higher losses per foreclosure than expected, Moody’s said today in a statement.”
……..Those GDP numbers really show that the economy is getting better this time.
- Saxplayer001












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