Housing market: 2010 and possibly 2011 is not going to be pretty.

By Daniel at 18 November, 2009, 2:53 pm

Sorry, but I had to break out my “Great NAR quotes”

Great NAR Quotes:

August 2005: “All of the doom and gloom forecasts of a housing debacle are not only irresponsible, but also downright wrong.” David Lereah, National Association of Realtors

April 2006 NAR: “We can expect a historically strong housing market moving forward, earmarked by generally balanced conditions across the country and fairly stable levels of home sales with some month-to-month fluctuations.”

July 2006 NAR: “Right now we are on course for a soft-landing in housing.”

October 2006 NAR: “The worst is behind us, as far as a market correction. This is likely the trough for sales. When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, we’ll see the buyers who’ve been on the sidelines get back into the market.”

December 2006 NAR: “At least the bottom appears to have already occurred. It looks like figures will be improving.”

July 2007 NAR: “Home sales will probably fluctuate in a narrow range in the short run, but gradually trend upward with improving activity by the end of the year.”

Feb 2008 NAR: Reuters reports that “The NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun, said the market is ’scratching the bottom,’ with sales holding at a deflated rate of around 5 million units for the past several months.”

April 2009 NAR: “We are close to the bottom, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. Once home sales begin to rise that could boost home buying confidence and get others off the sidelines.”

April 2009 NAR: The “worst may be over” in parts of the West, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the NAR

>>> And you are going to trust what they have to say now?

Optimism? Who’s optimistic these days? Oh wait, Wall ST is!! They are still getting bonuses from their lunch buddy Ben and still living in their penthouses while down here in Main ST, we are suffering and getting no handouts from the Feds.

Can you say, “Double Dip Recession,” and “Property in some areas still 20% to 30% overvalued,” and “Another tsunami of foreclosures in 2010,” and, “Commercial property is a basket case,” and, “The employment picture will be bad for many years.”

If only 50% of those things are the TRUE picture, this mess created by Wall Street and the banks and several other corporate entities, will cause big problems for a long while. Oh, yeah. I forgot to add the 12 trillion dollar (and growing) debt. I’m not a gold-bug but NOTHING will change for the better while gold prices (an indicator of extreme fear) continue to rise.

I am a builder and I project that 2010 will see a huge decline in starts and inventory. Builders are selling their inventory at prices that are not profitable which provides no incentive to start new homes. Banks are not lending for spec homes either so 2010 will be a very dismal year. The few builders that survive 2010 will look like POW camp survivors and will not be inclined or able to do more than minimal activity in 2011 regardless of the demand.

2010 and possibly 2011 is not going to be pretty. For every property being sold at the moment, another 9 are arriving on the market via foreclosures. You do not have to be a math professor to figure out the NAR and the government are lying. Just like the fake government figures of 9% unemployment, when the TRUE figure is 17% are manipulated.

“Insightful” news from CNBC (not really):

HOUSING SLUMP MAY WORSEN NEXT YEAR, NOT GET BETTER

Wednesday, 18 Nov 2009 | 1:30 PM ET
By: Albert Bozzo

If you already took advantage of the government’s tax credit for first-time homebuyers—or are planning to do it anytime soon—you’ll probably agree with this prediction: Sales of existing homes will peak in the final quarter of 2009, then begin a year-long slide, which is likely to be a sharp one, according to some estimates.

AP
Until the unemployment rate falls, the housing market won’t recover, economists said.

“Most of it [the tax credit] is simply shifting sales from one period to another,” says Global Insight economist Patrick Newport. “It doesn’t get rid of the fundamental problem; there’s still a glut of houses.”

Newport, for instance, expects single-family home sales to hit an annual rate of 5.88 million units in the fourth quarter (vs. 5.30 in the third quarter). Thereafter, sales will fall to 5.65 million in the first quarter and average just 4.75 million in the second half of the year.

…article continues…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/34018204

- bbbear