DING DING DING, the results are in!
By Daniel at 19 November, 2009, 9:04 pm
Okay folks, I’ve been punching the numbers. I figured since I post a lot you all might be interested in my trades. I will only use %, since that is polite, but in general I am working with a small amount (still a grad student).
I have been adding FAZ and TZA positions for the past 2 weeks. That’s right 2 weeks on every new pop, as you have probably heard me proclaim on this board. I hold approximately 30% of my high risk portfolio split evenly between FAZ and TZA. Over the past 2 weeks I have added and before today stood at 90% (today that is back to 30%ish). You can see I needed a small pullback to at least correct. I closed out all of my positions opened in the past 2 weeks, and there were loses as you might imagine. Here’s the data:
FAZ: - 2.8%
TZA: +1.0%
Total -1.0% (yes everything is adjusted and % are calculated correctly)
Now, here’s the real deal. My goal is to catch the correction and not miss it. The past 2 weeks the markets (DJI) have climbed 4.9% from 9850 to 10332. During a rise of 4.9% I have been actively holding 3x shorts (still am right now), and only suffered a 1% loss. So by averaging in and scalping I have suffered a 1/5x loss using 3x shorts. This is how you survive with shorts in a rising market.
Now you might ask, as an astute reader, well what about the 30% that you sit on. Yes, yes, I know. That bucket has lost value (-15% for DJI +8.7%)… But half of that was on a lousy gamble, not FAZ or TZA. Admidly, I just started and am a rookee, and am just starting to get the ropes. I made mistakes that cost money early on, and am having to fight to regain them. Now with my experience, a little luck on timing, and some more scalping, and even maybe, maybe a “correction” those loses will be wiped out and profits shall be made.
I will use the remaining pops to add more, and rinse and repeat. All the while actively staying in the market. Once this thing actually heads down I will be at least doubling (x2) the market’s movements, with any luck at all.
Anyway… good to actually run the numbers at some point. Now for some BEER, my head hurts from these red numbers. Although I’m quite proud of my performance over the last 2 weeks, and wanted to share with you all. Again, got a lot of good advice from many of you, so thanks.
Zi.
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