2009 Can’t be “better off” (at least in an economic sense)
By Daniel at 26 November, 2009, 11:13 pm
There IS plenty to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. We’ve certainly come a long way (baby) from a year ago.
Let’s not forget, avoiding a second Great Depression was no foregone conclusion in the immediate wake of Lehman’s collapse. Then there’s our portfolios. True, your 401(k) and IRA are probably less plentiful than a few years ago but the statements sure look a lot better now than they did heading into March of this year.
Many choke up the (relatively) good news to a stronger economy.
Many, but not all.
Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg (formerly chief economist with Merrill Lynch) recently told Barron’s he’s not sure we’re better off than we were after Lehman.
Here’s just some of the reasons why:
- Since Lehman, we have lost 6.2 million jobs
- The unemployment rate is 10.2% now, versus 6.2% the day before Lehman collapse
- Real gross domestic product is still down 3% since the summer of 2008
- Housing starts are down 30%
- Auto sales are down 23%
- Bank credit has contracted by $500 billion, or 8%
- Household net worth is down $7 trillion
- Home prices are down an average of 10%
- Apartment-vacancy rates are up a percentage point to 11.1%
- Consumer confidence is down 11 points
- The budget deficit has tripled
It’s hard to argue with these facts. But allow me to play devil’s advocate.
A few of the most important economic metrics are headed in the right direction.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/379461/Are-We-Really-Better-Off-Than-We-Were-a-Year
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