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Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is make by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected. - George Soros

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Entries for October, 2008

US “The GDP figures showed that spending on non-durable goods, which are smaller purchases such as food and paper, dropped at its sharpest rate since 1950.”

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7699884.stm
US Economy in recession and Q4 could be devastating:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5047418.ece
US Consumer spending hits a 28 year low:
“Nigel Gault, chief US economist at IHS Global Insight, points out that the numbers are somewhat shielded by strong government spending, particularly in defence.
As a result of likely weaker government spending, he predicts: “A quarter four [...]

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“Why Crude is down but Gasoline is barely”

y MrArbitrage
“As I have been hearing the complaints of many disillusioned consumers that gasoline prices are barely moving down despite the significant drop in oil prices, I think this would be a good time to point out the reason why that is.
When crude oil goes up, you see it immediately reflected in the [...]

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The recent drop in oil prices will very quickly reduce Exxon’s profit margin.

We remain the only country on the earth that refuses to develop our energy resources. Congress recently approved a very limited allowance for offshore drilling and the presumed incoming administration supported by majorities in both houses avows that these will be rescinded as soon as the elections are over.
The “plan” is to continue to [...]

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Layoff list grows even more from yesterday (daily updates)

Please read the most updated layoff list at: US Layoffs - The Latest Casualty Count
Compuware to lay off 300 employees
Detroit Free Press, United States - Oct 30, 2008
Tenneco to lay off 1100 worldwide, shut plants
The Associated Press - Oct 30, 2008
Toledo could lay off police officers
Toledo Blade, OH - Oct 30, 2008
Fidelity [...]

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There are so many things happening, not even being discussed yet–

Prime Borrower ‘HELP’ Requests Surge
Posted on October 30th, 2008 in Daily Mortgage/Housing News
I have been preaching for a long time that with values down so much across the nation, as much as 70% in areas of the more populated ‘bubble states’, that Subprime was only the beginning. The mortgage meltdown is definitively spreading into [...]

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FRE&FNM: No profits? No problem, we just change the accounting rules!

” LONDON (MarketWatch) — Deutsche Bank on Thursday reported an unexpected third quarter profit of 435 million euros ($575 million), helped by a tax gain and a change to accounting rules that allowed the bank to take fewer write-downs on its risky debt.
Germany’s biggest bank said profit was down 73% from 1.62 billion euros a [...]

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The “Dirty Little Secret” Of the US Bank Bailout

By Barry Grey
27 October 2008 “WSWS” — In an unusually frank article published in Saturday’s New York Times, the newspaper’s economic columnist, Joe Nocera, reveals what he calls “the dirty little secret of the banking industry”–namely, that “it has no intention of using the [government bailout] money to make new loans.”
As Nocera explains, [...]

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Facts about current financial/housing crisis

Since the Government and Taxpayers now own Fannie, Freddie, interest in AIG, and banks I believe this plan is Feasible. Also,
Since Obama plans Cabinet Position in Technology, including Internet and Automation, this idea should be used to reduce Mortgage costs.
FIRST Obama Technology Project, help restore Middle Class and stop “Homeowner Walkaway Crisis!”
FIVE [...]

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Mortgage giants expected to shrink again starting in 2010.

“”It really is business as usual. We are encouraging them now to be more creative,” Lockhart told a ballroom crowd at the Urban Land institute fall meeting here. “In this marketplace we really need Fannie and Freddie to provide liquidity and support.”
Although the government takeover of Fannie and Freddie, which included for each a $100 [...]

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My view about voting

Here is how I gauge the campaign. The Obama supporters are the ones that definitely put out the yard signs. They are the ones that will vote early, they produce the most noise so to speak. They are not shy about telling everybody who they are voting for. Many of the same yards have Obama [...]

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Why the market should go up on this encouraging data

First:
“After getting a big boost from the tax rebates in the second quarter, inflation-adjusted after-tax incomes fell 8.7%, the largest quarterly decline since the record-keeping began in 1947. Incomes fell much more in the Great Depression, when annual records were kept.”
COMMENT: This is great news, we aren’t as bad as the Great Depression yet! [...]

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QUOTE OF THE DAY:

“In signing this bill which comprises an essential part of the reconstruction program, I desire to express my appreciation to the leaders and Members of both Senate and House of both parties, who have cooperated in its enactment. The fine spirit of patriotic nonpartisanship shown in carrying out the emergency program is, I know, appreciated [...]

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Deutsche Bank was supposed to report a loss in the third quarter.

But the Frankfurt giant managed to turn a third-quarter profit of $575 million, and that’s because it took advantage of a new European Union accounting change.
Deutsche Bank was able to shift 825 million euros, or roughly $1.1 billion, in assets before tax to its loan bank from its trading book — meaning that it doesn’t [...]

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Volatile Stocks Marked the ’30s vs. 2008-2009

Most investors know that the Dow Jones Industrial Average did miserably during the Depression of the 1930s. It began the decade at 248.48, down from a high of 381.17 before the crash of 1929. By July 1932, the depths of the Depression, the industrial average was crawling at 41.22. It ended 1939 at 150.24.
What [...]

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Ambac begs for bailout

Ambac says government should back bond insurers
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Ambac Financial said on Wednesday that the U.S.
government should back bond insurers through a two-part program of guarantees.
The Treasury should provide a guarantee to bond insurers that covers portfolio
losses that exceed a certain level. This would free up capital and help to get
more credit flowing [...]

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